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Potassium nitrate prices have risen slightly.
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Release time:2020-10-23
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Since September, the price of potassium nitrate has risen due to the restoration of value-added tax on chemical fertilizers and the increase in raw material prices. Downstream feedback shows that the arrival price of Wentong granular potassium nitrate is 4100 yuan/ton (the same below), which has not increased significantly for the time being. However, the author believes that due to the recent sharp increase in the price of raw material potassium chloride, the possibility of Wentong raising prices later is very high due to cost pressure. The price of potassium nitrate in Shanxi has increased by about 100 yuan, with the ex-factory price of industrial grade being 4500-4600 yuan. It is reported that due to the Tianjin explosion, local relevant departments have also conducted stricter inspections, and the transportation of potassium nitrate is still relatively difficult. Hunan potassium nitrate enterprises have resumed production one after another, with the ex-factory price of industrial-grade potassium nitrate at 4500 yuan. Industrial demand is still acceptable, and sales are normal. Most Sichuan potassium nitrate manufacturers carried out overhauls in the early stage and have resumed production recently, with the ex-factory price of agricultural grade being around 4200 yuan.
Let's analyze the future trend of potassium nitrate prices based on the current market conditions.
Raw materials - The price of potassium chloride continues to rise. At the port, some traders offer 2450-2480 yuan for 62% white potassium, and because there are still some sales from previous ports, the market price is relatively chaotic, and transactions are mainly small orders. The price of border trade potassium chloride has risen, and the current price of 62% white potassium in border trade is 2260 yuan. Downstream feedback shows that the actual transaction price of large orders is around 2230 yuan. Due to less goods passing through, traders do not have much sales pressure. The domestic potassium chloride market is temporarily stable. The agent-inclusive price of 60% crystal from Salt Lake Potash is 2260 yuan, and the arrival price of 57% powder from small factories in Qinghai is 2000 yuan. Market feedback indicates that there is a possibility of a price increase for domestic potassium chloride in late September. The price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable, demand is weak, and due to the Tianjin explosion, the production and transportation of ammonium nitrate have also been subject to strict inspections. The current mainstream ex-factory price of ammonium nitrate nationwide is around 1600 yuan, and the high-end price is 1800 yuan. Overall, the price of potassium chloride may remain stable at a high level in September, the ammonium nitrate market is weak, but the price will not fluctuate significantly. Raw material prices provide some support for the potassium nitrate market.
Demand - In terms of industry, there is a lot of fireworks production in the second half of the year, and the demand for potassium nitrate is strong; the downstream consumption of the glass industry is mainly concentrated in the real estate and automobile manufacturing industries, with real estate consumption accounting for about three-quarters of the total consumption. The central bank's previous interest rate cut and the relaxation of provident fund loan policies in many provinces have provided some boost to the real estate industry. Therefore, some people predict that glass sales will increase in the fourth quarter. In terms of agriculture, the Yunnan tobacco bidding is approaching, and agricultural demand has continued. However, it should be noted that the price of fruits and vegetables is relatively low this year, which may affect the demand for potassium nitrate in the later period. Overall, the demand for potassium nitrate is gradually strengthening in September, which is good for the potassium nitrate market.
In summary, potassium nitrate is driven by cost and supported by demand, and there is momentum for prices to continue to rise. It is expected that the ex-factory price of industrial-grade potassium nitrate will remain at around 4500-4600 yuan, and the discount space will be appropriately compressed, while the price of agricultural-grade potassium nitrate may still have room for an increase of about 100 yuan.
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